2025 year in review
Is 2025 over already? What a year.
Many of us in the renewables industry will be happy to put this one behind us. The year was not without new milestones and some pleasant surprises. But the news cycle and the deal cycle were dominated by anticipation of, reckoning with, and awaiting specifics of federal policy changes. The waiting game continues with FEOC top of mind.
Highlights for Conductor in 2025
Growth in our M&A deal volume and deal sizes
Growth in ITC transfers for C&I customers
Official launch of operating asset M&A in the app
Official launch of standalone storage in the app
Highlights for the industry in 2025
85% of new US generation capacity from solar and storage (Q1 - Q3)
Global renewables electricity production exceeding coal for the first time (H1)
Electricity prices front and center in US politics for the first time in decades
The bigger story
At a global level, the story is incredibly positive. The renewable energy industry is a juggernaut that even a retrograde White House and acquiescent Congress have struggled to slow down. From climate policy to PV and BESS production, the world moves ahead with China in the pole position. Amid rising electricity prices, nixing renewable tax credits is starting to look like an own goal at a national scale.
At the same time, our industry is planning beyond solar tax credits in two important ways. The first is with the BESS tax credits that slid through unscathed and have garnered new attention from IPPs. The second is with solar projects that increase efficiency and reduce costs by ignoring the ITC. While the day-to-day focus has been safe harboring projects for solar tax credits, new approaches for the future are emerging.
We’ve seen increased BESS M&A deal volume this year on our platform, both with standalone projects and paired with solar. We have not yet listed a project without an ITC. But we have used our market data to identify geographies where these projects already pencil. As electricity rates continue to rise, we anticipate more parts of the map fitting the category.
Prediction wins and whiffs
Looking back, our predictions for 2025 were a little off. We tried to anticipate the Trump administration’s impact on solar’s middle market, but our forecast didn’t quite match reality. Here are the biggest wins and whiffs from that crystal ball:
Best prediction: nation-of-origin equipment requirements for all projects using tax credits
Worst prediction: the idea that GOP reps might support solar over Trump allegiance
Biggest surprise: no early phase-down for BESS tax credits
Who you gonna call?
Our heroes of 2025 are states stepping up policy support. And we’re eager to see how the states respond to rising electricity costs, as the issue comes front and center. Data centers are an easy target and a real challenge, but they’re not the whole picture. We need more power for everything now.
In the words of Ray Parker Jr., “Who you gonna call?”
Coal and oil: plant retirements will exceed new capacity
Nuclear: new plants beyond pilots will take 10-15 years
Utility scale renewables: federal permitting hurdles
Gas: anybody got a turbine?
Developers and operators of DG solar and storage are standing by. Here’s to phones ringing off the hook in 2026 and beyond.
