Insights from RE+ Las Vegas
What a week! Marc and I attended RE+ in Las Vegas last week, and it was bumpin’. Last year the conference had 27,000 attendees and this year had more - we heard estimates between 35,000 and 50,000, with 40,000 as the most common. Wherever the official number lands, it felt massive.
The Venetian Convention and Expo Center is so big that it can take 10 minutes to walk from one end to the other - assuming that you know where you’re going. But the place is a warren, and some people didn’t have cell phone reception. Our hit rate on back-to-back meetings was about 70% - not bad, actually. Lucky for us, our hotel didn’t get hacked. Not so lucky for some of our friends, and not the kind of luck you want to try in Vegas.
Industry Growth
It was a great year to be at the conference. The solar industry is growing rapidly spurred on by the Inflation Reduction Act. EPCs, developers, and investors are busy with deals in process and big plans for 2024 and 2025.
That growth is exciting but it comes with some challenges. Every company we spoke with is at or very near its maximum capacity. Developers are pushing forward on many projects all at once. Investors are financing these while also raising their next rounds of funding. We’re particularly attuned to a few late-stage project acquisitions targeting COD in Q4 - very important for all parties to align on these timelines.
Industry momentum is palpable, with deal activity and record breaking forecasts. One of the few places with a different near-term trend is behind-the-meter projects in California, where NEM 3.0 has put the brakes on solar-only projects and supercharged storage solutions. We’re excited for the long-term there too.
ITC Transfers
We’re hearing consistent themes on ITC transfers as as we get ready to enable these transfers in the marketplace in Q4:
Everyone is excited for transfers to happen
There’s lots of deals in flight but very few will close in 2023
Most deals are supported by insurance
Partial transfers are common, particularly with larger projects
With the IRS registry not anticipated to launch until December, it’s no surprise that quite a few buyers and sellers are waiting until 2024 to jump in. The proposed guidance released in June has helped, but it hasn’t resolved every issue. The most buzz about a potential variance from that June guidance is focused on the possibility that the IRS might allow purchased credits to offset active income. This would unlock a whole new set of buyers. But it would be a drastic change and it seems unlikely at this point.
Other RE+ Musings
Along with all the productivity came some great moments shared with friends. Here’s a sampling of what went down behind the scenes:
Our most common meeting spots were not in the Expo hall; they were scattered throughout the resort. One was a giant “Love” sign in front of an atrium waterfall. Another was an indoor replica of an open-air market beside a river with gondola rides. It almost felt like getting outside.
One of our partners lost his shoe. It literally disintegrated under his foot while we were meeting with him just steps away from a shoe store with fine Italian leather. Do resorts plan these things?
We found the perfect remedy for the desert heat: an ice bar! It is a bar within a freezer with glasses made out of ice. They give you coats and gloves to borrow so that your glass can melt right through your gloves and freeze your hands. All of a sudden that desert heat was sounding pretty good again.
We heard some great stories from Solar Fight Night, but this event continues to elude us. For general awareness, 10pm-2am Pacific Time is 1am-5am Eastern Time. Hats off to all East Coast attendees who made that one!
Marc, our CEO, got lost in the expo hall for 20 minutes trying to find the exit. When he finally emerged he had scored a teddy bear, heard a mariachi band, and been offered about 34 different beverages along the way.
Next year is back in Anaheim and we’ll see everyone back at the Venetian for RE+ 2025. We’ll set the over/under on attendance there at 60,000. Book your rooms soon!
